How to set up win criteria

Decide what an option must achieve to count as winning, before you see the results.

Set the rules first, so the results cannot change what you count as a win.

The win rule

The win rule says what an option must achieve to count as winning: how many objectives must be met, and how many strongly. You can type it or have Dave set it, for example:

Must beat the baseline on NPV and meet two other objectives.

The report restates it as the Definition of winning. Open it with Edit objectives and win rule.

In this example, a win needs revenue growth of at least 10%, an EPS improvement of at least 5% and a launch on time, all in the same simulated future. A strong win also meets two of three extra goals. Acceptable means not a win, but every must-have is above its floor. Anything else is a miss, and the plan needs a 70% chance of a win.

Risk appetite

Set risk appetite per objective, on that objective’s detail page: how big a shortfall you tolerate, and how often. Until you set it, the summary says “No risk appetite recorded yet”.

Your recommendation

Record your own call with Edit report details. It appears in the report beside what the model found.

Your judgments are stored beside the run, so changing them never makes a run stale.

Agree the win rule and risk appetite with the decision owner before running. Choosing them afterwards invites fitting the rule to the answer. See Best practice.

Next: Read the results