Skip to main content
Results has two views: Decision report and Run history. The report reads one saved run, chosen in the Saved run menu, and warns you if it is out of date. Run again makes a new run, and Print or save as PDF is at the top. The report itself has two screens:
  1. Compare alternatives shows all your options side by side.
  2. One alternative in detail shows one option, first as a summary and then objective by objective.
A walk through the Decision Analysis Report

​
Screen 1: Compare the options

You land here when the decision has several options. Under The alternatives side by side, each option has a card with its chance of a win: the share of simulated futures that meet your win rule. Compare alternatives: three options side by side, each with its chance of a win Read each card from top to bottom:
  • The big number is the chance of a win. Here “Go with mitigations” wins in 55% of futures, “Go as planned” in 41% and “Phase and re-scope” in 3%.
  • The bar splits all futures into Strong win, Win, Acceptable and Miss.
  • The red tag says whether the option reaches the chance the rule asks for. “Below the 70% win rule” means none of these options does.
  • Open summary → takes you to screen 2 for that option.
The No-go card at the bottom is the baseline. It means “do nothing”, and every other option must beat it. Below the cards, the Comparison section shows the same options four ways: key measures (such as net value and its bad case), whether each option wins, how each objective fares, and any measure you choose.
A low chance of a win does not mean the option loses money. Check the Acceptable share too. Many futures can fall short of a win and still be fine.

​
Screen 2: One alternative in detail

Choose Open summary → on any card, or use Summary at the top. Use the Alternative menu to switch option without going back.

​
The summary

The summary answers “where do we stand with this option?”. Summary for Go with mitigations: chance of a win, definition of winning and executive summary
  • Left: the chance of a win, the bar, and the Definition of winning repeated so nobody has to guess.
  • Right: an Executive summary in plain sentences: overall outlook, where we stand, risk appetite, money, the downside, the main warning signals and your recommendation (empty until you record one with Edit report details).
A warning signal such as “Retailer lead conversion below 1.2%: 2.2×” means that when this estimate comes out low, not winning is 2.2 times more likely than normal. It is not a forecast of a loss.

​
An objective

Choose Objective detail, or an objective from the Objective menu, to go one level deeper into a single goal, such as revenue growth. Objective detail for revenue growth: chance of falling short, risk appetite and the range of outcomes You see:
  • the chance of falling short, achieving or exceeding the target,
  • how that compares with your risk appetite: the chance of falling short against the most you accept, with a green or red tag,
  • the range of possible outcomes with P10, P50, P90 and the target marked,
  • the sensitivity analysis, which shows which estimates move this objective most. See Sensitivity and value of information.
Use ← Back to all alternatives or ← Back to the summary to climb back up.

​
Run history

Every saved run in order, with a ring on each run’s recommended option and a dashed line wherever the model version changed, so a shift can be read against what you edited. Stress tests are hidden by default.

​
If the report says “out of date”

The model changed after that run. Choose Run again. Next: Reading the numbers